VOTING PATTERNS: Analysts say 2026 elections to test regional loyalties

Political pundits anticipate that both President Museveni and his arch-rival, Robert Kyagulanyi, President of the National Unity Platform, will maintain the regional gains they made in 2021 during the 2026 general elections. They argue that there have been few changes significant enough to cause a shift in voting patterns. In the previous election, Museveni secured the northern bloc vote for the first time but lost the Buganda and Busoga sub-regions to Kyagulanyi. However, pundits suggest that if voting patterns were to change, the incumbent could have an advantage by leveraging the Parish Development Model program, while his main opponent has faced challenges in mobilization efforts.